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Purpose and evolution of this website

In the midst of Asian economic crises of 1997, the author (Chih Kwan Chen) has decided to undertake an analysis of the crisis from scratch. The measures used for the study are common sense, logic and objective analyses of the actual economic data. First, it is observed that the economic globalization is marked with the liberalized merchandise trades and the floating major currencies. Thus the focus of the study has been on the currency exchange rates and the exploding trade imbalances, and their relation to the economic performances. Especially the exchange rate between Japanese Yen and US Dollar is closely analyzed since Japan is the largest trade surplus country and US runs the biggest trade deficit in the world. The study has yielded the observation that Yen/Dollar rate determines the US trade deficit and Japanese trade surplus, and in turn the runaway trade deficit has induced US booms and exploding trade surplus has produced Japanese depression. This observation explains Reagan era boom and bust satisfactorily, and has successfully predicted the bust of the most recent US boom in Clinton era.

In "The Section for Everyone", the articles generated from the above mentioned research are listed for viewing. The results of those articles enable us to accurately pick out a developing massive boom, like the ones of Reagan era and Clinton era, and the time of its bust with a lead time of one to two years. To further apply the discoveries of this study to the day to day economic performance and to the economic performance at normal times, that is, not in a big boom, we need to go into more speculative ground than the research articles provide. Those projections will be very useful for professionals and serious invstors with substantial interest in economics, but can be dangerous for novice investors who try to convert observations into quick buy and sell signals in the stock market without careful evaluating the reasoning behind the observations. Therefore, those more speculative considerations and regular projections of the economic performance are put into a different section. To view more detailed depiction of the aim and methodology of this website, please click here.

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Papers and Articles

1.SUPER LOW INTEREST RATES OF JAPAN AND THE ANOMALIES OF THE WORLD ECONOMY, Chih Kwan Chen (Dec., 1998)

2.YEN/DOLLAR, TRADE DEFICITS, AND THE BOOM BUST CYCLES OF USA, Chih Kwan Chen (Aug., 2003)

2A.MORE ABOUT TRADES AND ECONOMIC CYCLES Chih Kwan Chen (Jan., 2006)

3.BEHIND THE GYRATIONS OF EURO/DOLLAE EXCHANGE RATE, Chih Kwan Chen (Jan., 2004)

4.HOW THE DOLLAR AND TRADE DEFICIT CRISIS WOULD HAVE EMERGED UNDER GOLD STANDARD , Chih Kwan Chen (Jan., 2004)

5.  RELATIONS AMONG THE LONG TERM TRENDS OF PRODUCTIVITY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, TRADE DEFICIT AND JOBS IN USA, Chih Kwan Chen ( June 30, 2004)

6.THE GEOPOLICAL CONFLICTS IN ASIA-PACIFIC REGION AND THE GLOBALIZTION, Chih Kwan Chen (April 29, 2005)

7.GLOBALIZATION UTOPIA, Chih Kwan Chen (Feb., 2004)

8. Golgo 13, The Currency Manipulation Plot: a serious analysis, Chih Kwan Chen (March, 2004)

9.A TRADE DEFICIT WEIGHTED DOLLAE INDEX, Chih Kwan Chen (November 17, 2006)

9A.Update of Trade Deficit Weighted Dollar Index and Some US Trade Deficit Data (Latest Update: June 20, 2009) Chih Kwan Chen

10.ANATOMY OF ECONOMIC BUBBLES: US economy from 1960 to 2007, Chih Kwan Chen (March 6, 2008)

11.CRUDE OIL PRICE, MYTHS AND FACTS by Chih Kwan Chen (August 1, 2008)

12.ANALYSES OF RECESSIONS: from 1955 to 2008 (January 20, 2009, errors of labeling in Fig. 1 corrected on June 30, 2009)

Some Economics Related Comments (in reversed chronological order)

Projections and (redundant) index of comments

Content:

Non-economic Events Watch List
    Middle east conflict is near its final explosion (Jan. 11, 2007)
    North Korea (May 28, 2005)
    Mideast Situation (January 23, 2005)
    The Elections (Aug. 3, 2004)
    Global Ramification of Taiwan's Election Crisis (April 2, 2004)
    Mad Cow Diesease (Dec. 30, 2003)
    Terrorism against the financial district of New York CIty or Washington D.C. (Nov. 8, 2003)
    Terrorism in other major parts of USA (Nov. 8, 2003)
    Terrorism outside USA (Nov. 8, 2003)
    Recurrence of SARS (Dec. 30, 2003)
    The outcome of Iraq Guerrilla War (Nov. 8, 2003)
    North Korea (Nov. 8, 2003)

Projections of Economic Performances

    a. USA
        USA Outlook Update (July 28, 2007): A Recession Watch! Massive downward revisions in the 2nd Quarter (2007) GDP report paints a much weaker US economy than we have perceived.
        USA Outlook Update (May 2, 2007): Current status of US economy and its prospects.
        USA Outlook Update (Nov. 19, 2006): Inflation update
        USA Outlook Update (Oct. 31, 2006): September consumer spending is strong! Media reports are wrong.
        USA Outlook Update (Sept. 7, 2006): Personal Consumption Expenditure and GDP from 2005 to 2006; a recession is not in sight.
        Outlook Update (July 28, 2006): GDP of second quarter of 2006, and the prospect of inflation and interest rate
        Outlook Update (May 26, 2006): Revised real GDP of 1st Quarter of 2006 and its adjustments
        Outlook Update (May 19, 2006): GDP of 3rd Quarter of 2005 to 1st Quarter of 2006 and beyond
        Out Look Update ( January 28, 2006): GDP of 4-th Quarter of 2005
        Out Look Update ( January 21, 2006)
        Out Look Update ( August 18, 2005)
       Out Look Update (April 14, 2005)
       Out Look Update (Feb. 12, 2005)
       Out Look Update (Jan.17, 2005)
       Out Look Update (Jan.07, 2005)
       Discussion: Trade Deficit and GDP (Oct. 22, 2004)
        Discussion: Second Quarter GDP and Beyond (Sept. 15, 2004)
        General Discussion (Aug. 3, 2004)
        General Discussion (July 19, 2004)
        Inflation (June 26, 2004)
        About Jobs: a technical analysis (Feb. 25, 2004)
        US economy: a long term projection (Nov. 7, 2003)

    b. Currencies and Gold
        General Discussions
               Currency & Gold Update (Jan. 31, 2007): Yen carry trade and the danger of dynamic hedging
               Currency & Gold Update (April 13, 2006): From gold to Euro, Yen and Yuan ETF's?
               Currency & Gold Update (Nov. 12, 2005): Yen carry trade
               Discussion (June 14, 2005)
               Discussion (January 19, 2005)
               Questions about Chinese Yuan: (Nov. 21, 2004)
               The Danger of a Currency War : (Sept. 28, 2004)
               The Danger of Hasty Dollar Devaluation : (Sept. 26, 2004)
               Divergence of long and short term interest rates in USA and its implication to currency markets: (Sept. 23, 2004)
        Euro/Dollar
               Discussion:(Nov. 21, 2004)
               Discussion: (Aug. 3, 2004)
               Discussion: (May 15, 2004)
        Yen/Dollar
               Discussion:(Nov. 21, 2004)
               Discussion: (Aug. 3, 2004)
               Discussion: (May 18, 2004)

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